The Dangers of Complexity in Planning

We've all heard the saying; "nothing ever seems to work as we plan it," or at least some variation along that theme. But there is indeed a pretty good reason for this and the rational is quite compelling actually. In fact, many folks who are professional planners will agree.

The famous historical military philosopher and genius, Carl von Clausewitz seemed to think that the more complex your plans are the more they are doomed to fail. Colonel Boyd discussed this at length with regards to the Blitzkrieg against a superior force and better planned operation. This is at least part of the basis for swarm theory, even discussed in the "Black Swan" theory.

Since we know things are not going to work out like we planned in the first place we must commit to an on-going planning process. And this indeed, is another reason why I believe that the fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants entrepreneurs are still needed, as they have experience of turning failure into opportunity. They have too, it's a learned survival skill, and if not, they do not live to fight another day.

Over planning or over analyzing will get you into a little bit of a pickle in that the bigger your plans become, the less likely that all the levers will turn the way you perceive. Just because you perceive to have concluded every possible contingency, does not many any of them, or in any particular order will happen that way. In fact, the odds are they won't.

Artificial intelligent decision making programs tend to do better with more data, while humans tend to do worse. Meanwhile, once things get under way, and the variables stack up, it gets pretty difficult to know anything for sure. I hope you will consider the dangers of complexity in planning and not let your ego destroy your efforts. Think on this.

Lance_Winslow

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